Israel ceasefire would boost Harris’ candidacy

Kamala Harris, the new presumptive Democratic nominee for president, last week marked her position on Gaza with the strong words: “We cannot look away in the face of these tragedies. We cannot allow ourselves to become numb to the suffering and I will not be silent.” This is a welcome shift in tone, but whether it will lead to a shift in policy is yet to be seen.
Harris has begun her presidential campaign. She has energized the Democratic base, which had seemingly grown tired of aging President Joe Biden. To add to that, Biden was trailing Donald Trump by six points across seven key swing states. The result of the November election is expected to be decided by states such as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Trump’s lead in the polls has suddenly started shrinking since Biden stood aside and endorsed Vice President Harris.
Her statement on Gaza was very much needed during this election season. Some 83 percent of Democrats want a ceasefire. The National Association for the Advancement of Colored People has called on Biden to stop sending weapons to Israel and to use his influence to end the war in Gaza. The Black vote was a core constituency for Biden and it will likely be equally, if not more, important for Harris. Michigan could go to Trump if Arabs and Muslims do not vote for the Democrats.
A ceasefire is not only targeted to Harris’ audience. She would also win the respect of the undecided, as she would be the leader aiming to bring stability and prevent the US from being sucked into a regional confrontation. It would help shape her image. It would raise her profile as a firm and resolute leader. During Biden’s presidency, she has not been highly visible. This is probably because Biden was counting on running again and did not want to be outshone by his deputy. Now, she is stepping out of the shadows. There would be no better way to do so than to stop the ongoing war and push for a political solution, the two-state solution, on which there is global consensus.
Unlike Biden, who is a self-confessed Zionist, Harris is showing that her commitment is to principles, which is what the US stands for. Despite all the indicators showing that Democratic voters want a ceasefire and despite his frayed relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Biden does not want the break between the US and Israel to happen on his watch. Several analysts have said that ideology is the motivation for the American president’s devotion toward Israel. While the US has been begging Israel to show restraint, Netanyahu has only shown defiance.

Netanyahu is using Saturday’s tragic killing of 12 Druze children in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights as an excuse to hit Lebanon. 

Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib

Harris has raised the stakes. Voters are welcoming the change of tone but they expect more. They will want to see action if she becomes president. She will need to deliver. She cannot afford to disappoint her base. Otherwise, such empty promises will be used against her by her opponents. Trump takes pride in being someone who delivers on his promises. One of his taglines is “promises made, promises kept.” Now that Harris has made those strong statements, she will need to deliver. She will need to push a ceasefire down the throat of Netanyahu.
The important question is will she be able to do so? Will she be able to resist the pressure from pro-Israel groups? Biden has not been able to enforce a ceasefire on Netanyahu and he has also refused to show Israel some tough love. The only way to force Israel to comply is by stopping weapons shipments. Biden has largely refused to use this leverage. Will Harris take this bold step and turn her rhetoric into policy? Even if she wanted to stop arms shipments to Israel immediately, for now it is Biden that still calls the shots.
Biden is unlikely to change his policy now, as he approaches the end of his presidency and prepares to exit politics. The pro-Israel lobby has invested so much in Biden. He is at the top of the list of their recipients of campaign funding. He has received more than $4 million since 1990. It is unlikely that he would take this drastic decision now. However, the same way that the Democratic establishment pressured him into dropping out of the 2024 election race, it could pressure him into taking this step.
Netanyahu, on the other hand, is a political animal. He will not take the demand for a ceasefire lying down. He is using Saturday’s tragic killing of 12 Druze children in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights as an excuse to hit Lebanon and hence to continue the war, while throwing a ceasefire out of the window. Last week’s anti-Israel protest in Washington, in which American flags were burned, also did not help. Harris called the burning of the US flag a “despicable” and “unpatriotic” act.
Delivering a ceasefire will not be an easy task for Harris, but she should pressure Biden to deliver it, as it could be a defining factor for her candidacy.

• Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on lobbying. She is co-founder of the Research Center for Cooperation and Peace Building, a Lebanese nongovernmental organization focused on Track II.